Sorry this was posted so late, but too many people in my leagues read my blog, and I couldn't give away all my secrets until after my last draft, so I hope this information will be able to help those who still need to draft, or may give you some ideas of players to target in early season trades or on the waiver wire.
I'll try and give you some guys I like to be picked after the top guys, obviously if you can get a top guy you should, but you will need backups, etc. Numbers are my ranks. Also my rankings are based on Head to Head points leagues.
Catcher
6. K Johjima Sea-Solid stats after the big name catchers, also a bonus if your league rewards points for how many guys he throws out trying to steal.
7. B. Molina SF-He will bat cleanup for San Fran but not much around him.
23. Dionner Navarro-TB-I like him as a backup C, you should be able to take him with the last pick or get him on the FA list
First Base
4. M. Texiera-Atl Good 2nd round pick, I think he will have a monster year in Atl,as he seeks a new contract.
9. N. Swisher-ChiW-He had an off year last year, but goes to Chi, which is a better park, also OF eligible.
14. J. Loney-LAD good potential for 300/30/90, good backup pick
15. A. LaRoche-Pit-Great 2nd half the last 2 years if he can put together a full season, he will be a mid to late round steal.
19. R. Garko-Clev-I really like him as a sleeper in a great lineup, he loses some starts when the Indians play Martinez at first though.
Second Base
9. R. Weeks-Milw-Major injury risk and low BA, but has 30/30 potential, and this is the first year he has't had a surgery to recover from in the offeseason, although he is already dealing with a minor hand injury and has struck out 20 times this spring. High risk/high reward pick
18. M. Ellis-Oak-decent power if you need a backup.
21. T. Wigginton-Hou-25 HR power, low BA, but he is eligible at 1b,2b,3b, so you can plug him into your lineup alot of places when your starters are off in daily leagues.
Third Base
10. A. Beltre-Sea-Another great 2nd half guy, but good as a backup, power and SBs
12. A. Gordon-KC-Was supposed to be the next D. Wright, but struggled last year as a rookie, still has that potential.
13. H. Blalock-Tex-Finally had the shoulder surgery that robbed him of his power the last 2 years, a little risky, but if he can start hitting lefties, watch out
15. E. Encarnacion-Cin-LOVE him, sleeper pick of the draft. Power and speed potential, plays in a great hitters park. He batted over 330 in Aug and Sept last year, grab him!
16. J. Fields ChiW-Lots of power, 250 avg should play 3b or lf, however he my be sent to the minors if Joe Crede isn't traded or proves to be healty.
20. P. Feliz-Phi-Lots of power, low avg, goes from big SF park to small Philly park, could be good for 30 HRs.
Shortstop
Besides Rollins or Reyes, there is nothing I really like as a sleeper pick, You have to make sure you get atleast 1 of the top 10, I have them as Rollins, Reyes, H. Ramirez, Tejada, Jeter, M. Young, Tulowitski, C. Guillen, O. Cabrera, R. Furcal. If you pick in the top 5 I would definately try to grab Rollins or Reyes, I'm not trusting H-Ram this season as a #2 overall, let alone a first round pick, he had offseason shoulder surgery, he is going to bat leadoff, who is he going to drive in the P or the C. He will steal bases and hit for some power (He never showed any power when he was in the minors) but, I don't see him being able to repeat last season.
Outfield
I'm passing on Magglio Ordonez, as he will be this years Jermaine Dye, major drop off. Vlad Guerrero, has been one of the most consistent OF's of the last 5+ years, but he just looks so uncomfortable running around the field, maybe its b/c he admitted that one leg is longer then the other but to me he is getting to the age that he is a risky first rounder. I don't see E. Byrnes having another year like he did, he will still hit some homers, but he is not going to steal 50 bases. I don't like A. Soriano unless you get him in the third round or later.
I do like, in no specific order;
Abreu-NYY He looks healthy and he is in a FA year, not alot of power anymore, but can still steal some bases, hit for avg, and he will score alot in the Yankees lineup.
Swisher CHiW-see 1B above
B Hawpe-Col-good numbers, good park, alot of people forget about him with Helton, Holiday and Atkins in Colorado
R. Winn-SF-puts up numbers across the board, but good as a 5th of
J. Hermida-Fla-Big 2nd half, finally healthy (now dealing with a hamstring injury), somebody has got to hit in Fla, right?
A. Dunn-Big Power, great park, avg was around 270 last year, walks alot, but k's alot, can steal some bases
P. Burrell-Phi-Good power, small park, good lineup.
C. Duncan-Stl-Good power, missed some time last year still had 21 HRs, had 22, after call up in 06. Should bat 2nd, in front of Pujols.
R. Ibanez-Sea-Not a sexy pick, but he seems to put up good numbers each year, he will probably not reach last year's #s, and may be a little overrated, but if he was there late, he would be worth the pick.
J. Hamilton-Tex Traded from good park in Cin-to good park in Tex, he will be full time cf, 30/30 contender, but always has his drug demons to deal with.
F. Gutierrez-Clev-Deep sleeper, but good lineup could give you 20/20.
Closer
I would try to grab Paplebon, or Jenks they are worth the high pick.I would stay away from Valverde-Hou, he is going to a hitters park and a worse team; Cordero-Wash, his ERA and WHIP have gone up the last 3 seasons; and Nathan-Min, opps will be limited now that the team has lost Santana and Hunter.
I do like;
Gagne-Milw-Better situation for him then Boston, Brewers are expected to be a good team, and people will remember his disastorous time in Boston, and forget that he was solid in Texas, good pick late to be your 2nd/3rd closer.
Ryan-Tor-Back from injury people may forget about him, some risk.
M. Corpas-Col-Finished last season strong and was untouchable in the playoffs.
C. Marmol-ChiC-Middle Reliever, but great stats and may close, would be excellent late pick.
Starters
I like;
Verlander-Det I really think he will be a top 5 P this year, he has a great lineup and pitches in a big park.
Webb-Az The guy has a Cy Young and still doesn't get the recognition he should.
Haren-Az-Moves to NL after having a 3.07 ERA in the AL last season
Dice-K-Bos-Should be more comfortable this season, last season's expectations were obviously too much, but he should win atleast 15 and K 200.
B. Myers-Phi-Returns to starting, big Ks.
Aj Burnett-Tor-Healthy, FA year, k per inning in the 2nd half last year.
Maine/Perez-NYM Both could win 15 with the Mets lineup and both could top 175 in Ks
J. Francis-Col-really good, but when he's bad, he is really bad.
C. Young-SD-Awesome, missed some time last year, so he will be ranked lower then he should.
M. Cain-SF-lots of hard luck L's last year, should get some more W's even though SF stinks and he gets K's, and low ERA
A. Wainwright-Stl-#1 for Stl, great K potential, I still have nightmares of watching the knee buckling curve he K'd Beltran on in game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
I. Snell-Pit Great source of Ks, has improved the last 2 seasons, people often forget him b/c he pitches in Pit.
P. Hughes-NYY Everyone talks about Joba, but Hughes was the better prospect, he was working on a no hitter in his 2nd start, and unlike Joba Hughes is in the rotation.
Buchholz/Lester-Bos Both young Ps could be the beneficiaries of good run support, I like Lester a little more b/c he will be in the rotation, whereas Buch may start the season in the pen or in the minors until a 5th starter is needed.
K. Escobar-Anh/N. Lowry-SF-Both out until May, but could be worth a DL spot
D. McGowan-Tor Young power P
R. Johnson-AZ May only last a short time but if you can get him late will have some big k games.
I don't trust Liriano, or Kazmir this year b/c of injury concerns. Liriano is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and watching his ultra violent delivery I don't want to take the chance on his elbow holding up. Kaz has been shut down in the past 2 seasons and already is having problems this year, although he owns the Red Sox.
This last bit of wisdom comes from my buddy Rich, before the 2006 season he told me to watch out for Carlos Pena, I watched and he did nothing, playing AAA ball for the Yankees and Redsox, but last year exploded with the Rays. So that led us to conclude that maybe he is just a great predictor of what will happen not this year, but next. Last year he picked Victor Zambrano, who was released by the Blue Jays early in the season, but is/was in camp with the Rockies this spring, pick him at your own risk. His pick for this year, so look to grab him next season, although I think he will be good this year is Adrain Beltre.
